For the domestic glacial acetic acid market in September, many market players have a positive outlook. From the current market influencing factors, it is indeed mainly favorable.

Firstly, it is mainly reflected in the supply side. In September and October, there are news about domestic facilities, including planned maintenance, reduced production due to profit issues, and new facilities' commissioning problems, etc.

From the data, the facilities with reduced supply in the first half of September include Jiantao Phase I, Hualu Jingzhou, Henan Shunda, and Nanjing Celanese, etc. However, considering the maintenance news in October, there is a possibility of limited supply starting from the second half of September (factories need to accumulate inventory in advance to ensure long-term supply during the shutdown period). But there are also facilities expected to increase supply in September, such as Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong, Zhejiang Petrochemical, and Henan Shunda. However, all these facilities have a high degree of uncertainty and there is a possibility of delays.

From the demand side, September marks the traditional peak season for demand. It is necessary to pay attention to the changes in downstream and terminal demand. There is an expectation of increased demand for acetate esters, such as Ningxia Ruiyuan, Henan Shunda, and Ruibai. Currently, there are many maintenance news for PTA, but most of them are expected to restart in the middle and late September. The demand for chloroacetic acid is expected to remain stable, but it is reported that the current inventory of enterprises is relatively high, and there is a possibility of new facilities in Lianyungang starting production in September. This may lead to a decline in prices in September, which in turn may compress product profits and affect enterprise production.

Regarding the export situation in September, with the domestic supply and demand contradiction slightly easing, the expectation for export negotiations is generally not high. However, it is reported that American supplies are flowing into the Indian market, and this situation may continue in the future. Moreover, the arrival cost is competitive with the domestic market. Therefore, domestic glacial acetic acid exports will face additional competition.

From the cost side, the regional performance of the raw material methanol market is quiet conspicuous. However, the favorable expectations for the domestic market in September have weakened. Facilities that were under maintenance in the first half of August have gradually restarted, and the situation of local olefin plants purchasing methanol has disappeared due to the maintenance of Baofeng’s Methanol and Olefin. The supply will gradually increase. The local inventory at the port is severe, and the subsequent imports remain at a high level. Moreover, there is still no restart news for a certain olefin plant at the port. Overall, the methanol market fundamentals are not favorable. Even though September is the traditional peak season for demand, considering the supply pressure, market players are cautious. Therefore, it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of the macro environment on the market.

Based on this expectation, the cost side of glacial acetic acid in September is relatively weak. Coupled with the favorable support of supply and demand, market players have a positive outlook for September.